Analysis on the State of Play

Gerry Moriarty reports

Sinn Fein is polling strongly In the Northern Ireland Assembly elections and is on track to be the largest party at Stormont, usurping the DUP, and in line to take the First Minister post.

The other main headline of the election so far is that the centre-ground Alliance party is also performing well and likely to see its number of seats into double figures, after entering the election with eight seats.

The DUP which was the largest party in the last Assembly with 28 seats appeared in danger of dropping a couple or possibly more seats.

Sinn Fein is likely to at least hold the 27 seats it won in the last Assembly elections and therefore in position for the party leader in the North Michelle O’Neill to be next First Minister.

However, there is great uncertainty over whether a new Northern Executive can be formed. DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, who was elected in Lagan Valley has said there can be no new administration until the Northern Ireland protocol issue is resolved. It also remains unclear as to whether the DUP would serve in an Executive where it held the Deputy First Minister post.

The DUP lost a considerable amount of its vote share to the Traditional Unionist Voice party. Mr Donaldson said a key lesson for unionism is that it “simply cannot afford the divisions that exist".

“There are seats that might be lost because of divisions, despite that the common ground we share, whether it is our belief in the union or our opposition to the Irish sea border and the protocol,” he said.

Naomi Long, who topped the poll in East Belfast, said it was “a good day so far for Alliance” which could see its representation increase by four and possibly more seats.

The SDLP which entered the election with twelve seats was under pressure in at least three seats, including that of its sole Minister Nichola Mallon in North Belfast.

The Ulster Unionist Party, which had ten seats, also appeared in danger of losing some representation. There also was a question mark over the seat of party leader Doug Beattie in Upper Bann.

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